Assessing Ecological Economic Impacts of Landscape Change in Montana’s Flathead County

projects.cares.missouri.edu/montana/

Objectives

1. Identify changes in land cover and habitat suitability for selected species in two historical periods (1985 and 2002)
   
2. Develop and apply landscape change, real estate development, and economic impact assessment models to simulate the impacts of alternative futures on landscape patterns, habitat suitability and economic activity in 2014 and 2024
   
3. Develop and apply an ecological model to assess impacts of alternative futures on habitat suitability in the county and Flathead River corridor between Columbia Falls and Kalispell
   
4. Create a Web-based spatial decision support tool that facilitates stakeholder use of the models and data developed in the project

Methods

Habitat suitability in the county will be evaluated by combining changes in landscape patterns associated with alternative futures with habitat suitability models for aquatic, avian and carnivore species. Changes in ecological integrity of the Flathead River corridor will be evaluated by incorporating simulated future landscape changes and hyperspectral data for the corridor in a hydrogeomorphic model. Economic impacts of alternative futures will be assessed by changes in total economic output, household income and employment from 2004 to 2014 and 2024. The decision support tool will allow stakeholders to assess the economic and ecological impacts of alternative future growth and development scenarios for Flathead County, and compare the effectiveness of alternative residential and commercial development, infrastructure expansion, and natural resource conservation policies in alleviating undesirable impacts.

Expected Products

1. Processed remote sensing images that document historical changes in land cover from 1982 to 2002, and effects of those changes on habitat suitability for selected species and wetland functions of a riverine corridor.
   
2. Spatial database containing TM, and airborne images and GIS layers with detailed information for inhabited portions of Flathead County.
   
3. Locations of future changes in land use in the county and a riverine corridor.
   
4. Specification of alternative futures (economic growth rates and land development policies) and corresponding land requirements for 2010, 2014 and 2024.
   
5. Transition probabilities for land cover classes, and the spatial pattern of future land cover changes in the county.
   
6. Impacts of alternative futures on habitat suitability for selected species at the county scale, wetland functions at the riverine corridor scale, and economic activity (total output and employment) at the county scale.
   
7. Tradeoffs between ecological integrity and economic activity in 2014 and 2024.
   
8. A Web-based spatial decision support system that allows stakeholders to assess the impacts of future changes in growth and development on habitat suitability for selected species at the county scale, wetland functions at a riverine corridor scale, and economic activity (total output and employment) at the county scale.
   
9. Five to six journal articles dealing with:
1. using remote sensing to detect and evaluate future changes in land cover and landscape structure,
2. estimating ecological and economic impacts of future economic development using APACK and HGM/IMPLAN models,
3. developing a SDSS for evaluating ecological and economic impacts of economic development, and
4. assessing the effectiveness of alternative strategies for reducing adverse impacts of future growth and development.

Principal Investigator: Tony Prato

Project Manager: Tony Prato

Project Staff: Yan Barnett, Kris Dolle and Anthony Clark

Funding Amount: $360,000

Funding Source: CSREES-USDA-National Research Initiative

Project Duration: August, 2003 – July, 2006 (3 years), with 1-year extension